Hearts & Minds: Benefits of the doubt: how PM is navigating a course through welfare reform

So far, so good. You can hear the sighs of relief from Downing Street as Labour tiptoes through the minefield of welfare reform. From a PR perspective, the plan is going smoothly. The softening up exercise of warning of dire measures to come, followed by the lesser reality, did its job.

Confirmation came from the media reaction. Left-wing commentators voiced their dismay but were not as angry as they might have been; from the right, the message was one of disappointment, that the cuts did not go far enough. The overall signalling by Sir Keir Starmer and his colleagues that these are steps that must be taken, that Britain cannot go on feeding an insatiable benefits budget, that the economy cannot afford it, hit home.

The choice of language is measured and nuanced. This isn’t a return to ‘austerity’, nor is it a reprise of the opposition rhetoric of ‘strivers vs scroungers.’ It’s playing to the opinion polls which show that most British people desire a system that is transparently fair and operates efficiently. So, we are told that the ‘vast majority of voters’ are dissatisfied with a framework that sees one in eight young people not in any type of education, training or employment, and one in ten adults of working-age claiming some form of state health or disability payment. That is accompanied by reminders of how the exchequer is holed, thanks to the Tories, and we must rein in public spending, where we can. By making improvements, together, we will all prosper.

The problem is what happens next. Running the country is not the same as managing a company. In government, your customers are also your owners, the voters; in a company, the two are divorced. A corporate can deliver bad news – substantial branch closures, say – and the shareholders approve, they will not be adversely affected. It’s not like that for Starmer. Worryingly for him, those same people who decry the benefits system, when they’re pressed, also say how they believe those they know with a disability should receive more. It’s like being a nimby – we all claim we’re not one until the new building is planned for next door.

Little detail has been given. He’s got across this first hurdle by the actual announcement not being so bad and by postponing the awkward stuff for later. It will come. There will be protest. There is much treacherous ground still to cover.

Chris Blackhurst is one of the UK’s foremost business journalists. He was previously Editor of The Independent and City Editor of the Evening Standard.