Hearts & Minds: “Too early to say” is all one can say amid tariff turbulence

One of the most oft-repeated phrases is ‘We live in uncertain times.’ It is something that the older generation like to say, usually shaking their heads. Seriously, though, these really are the most unpredictable of days.

Look at the weekend just gone. First, it was revealed that smartphones, computers and other consumer electronics were excluded from the US tariffs increases. Then, the administration said they weren’t, that those items would soon be covered under levies that would be separate from those imposed on specific countries. Then, the President insisted there was ‘no exception’ for those products: ‘We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.’

Companies are expected to try and make sense of it all. Their stakeholders look to them for guidance as to how the business will be affected. Those with results due in the coming weeks feel beholden to say something, but what? They are always under pressure to review the previous period and to look ahead to the next. But only if they get it right. Make a wrong prediction and they will not be forgiven. If you don’t know the answer, do not attempt to hazard a guess, better to say nothing at all.

Investment banks pride themselves on knowing, but this is a rider on a latest piece of analysis: ‘We won’t waste your time with a market update. It could be irrelevant by the time you are reading this anyway.’

This company has reported: ‘We note the proposed changes to tariffs announced last week. At this stage, the outcome of these developments is uncertain. We are in regular dialogue with our brand partners but it is too early to comment on the potential sector impact.’

Say something similar. Investors, business partners, employees, customers - they might not like it. Neither will the media. The firm, the chairman, board, CEO, they may not be happy either. It sticks in the craw, this comms cop out.

But the alternative is a false step. You may be ridiculed and worse, and it will be remembered. It might be the case too that in this news-hungry atmosphere, your more detailed, definitive comment could be seized upon, taken away from the company reports and soon leading the agenda and across social media. Do you really want that?

Take heart: nobody right now will think you weak for not declaring how performance will be affected.

Chris Blackhurst is one of the UK’s foremost business journalists. He was previously Editor of The Independent and City Editor of the Evening Standard.